El Nino Southern Oscillation Quick-Look Images

(Current Observations and Forecasts)

PDF : El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

PDF : Weekly ENSO Update (Updated Mondays)

--- Current Conditions ---

Equatorial Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Wind and Water Temperature Anomaly

Courtesy: NOAA PMEL

Lower panel: West-to-east winds and warmer than normal water temps are indicative of El Nino

20 Degree Thermocline Depth and Position Time Series

Courtesy: NOAA PMEL

Southern Oscillation Index

Courtesy: BOM

Measures the relative surface pressure difference between Darwin Australia and Tahiti. Consistently negative values indicate El Nino, positive values La Nina. Short negative spikes are associated with the active phase of the MJO. Continual active MJO events contribute greatly to the SOI and each individual event can generate westerly wind bursts that result in Kelvin Waves.

Southern Oscillation Index

Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Animation

Courtesy: CPC

Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top,Â°C) and anomalies (bottom,Â°C) for the past twelve weeks. SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).

Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Animation

Nino Regions Anomalies

Courtesy: CPC

Nino Regions Anomalies

Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecast
Nino 3.4

Courtesy: NCEP NOAA CPC

Notice that the average of many separate runs of many models generally suggesting warmer than normal waters well off Ecuador and slowly settling back to a normal pattern by March 2013 consistent with a weak El Nino at best.

Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecast